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For the sixth consecutive year, with the collaboration of 333 users, we conducted a survey on the average annual pig price across different global markets. From January 22 to February 12, 2024, our users were asked, "What do you think the average pig price in your country will be in 2024?" Participants from 71 different countries provided us with 735 responses.
With 2024 now behind us and data on the average prices across various markets in hand, we are ready to compare the predictions with the actual outcomes.
Graph 1 shows the comparison between the price predictions provided by 333 users and the actual average price for the 2024 period in each of the countries analyzed, along with the number of data points used in the analysis. Meanwhile, Figure 1 displays the same information along with the average price trend over the past few years.
Graph 1. 333 survey on the pig price in 2024: comparison between 333 users' predictions (January 22, 2024 to February 12, 2024) and the actual price recorded during the entire fiscal year 2024. The number of data analyzed is shown in parentheses.
The level of accuracy between predictions and reality is remarkable in several of the markets analyzed. Users in the United Kingdom and Colombia were the best at predicting the pig price in 2024, with forecasts very close to reality, just 1.1% and 1.6% above the actual average price, respectively. These countries were closely followed by Italy, Spain, and Poland whose predictions were slightly above the actual market price by 1.9%, 2.3%, and 2.5% respectively.
All the European countries analyzed, influenced by the record prices in 2023, expected higher prices in 2024 to varying degrees than what ultimately occurred. Perhaps the most striking discrepancy between prediction and reality, given the accuracy in previous years’ surveys, was in Germany, with a gap of 18 cents. In the Americas, Argentina and Colombia followed a similar trend to the European countries, while Brazil and Mexico saw prices that exceeded expectations. In Asia, both China and Vietnam experienced higher prices than forecasted.
The actual average price in all countries was within the 333 users' expected price range with two exceptions, Russia and South Africa. The low number of participants may explain, at least in part, this result in both cases.
Figure 1. Evolution of the average pig price and standard deviation by year and country (blue) up to 2024. Orange shows the (median) price prediction for 2024 made by users who participated in the 333 pig price survey.
The survey on the average pig price in 2025 is now open. Make your prediction by clicking the following link: What do you think the pig price will be in your country in 2025?
333 Staff
